2013年6月22日 星期六

檔案分享 Archive


(05/07/2014): 在這分享一些我覺得還不錯的文章, 有興趣的人可以自己選擇來唸. 許多文章都是較舊的, 但不論是新生代的Einhorn, Ackman等或Buffett, Munger的文雖然是舊的但還對於了解美國頂尖投資人的思考還是很有幫助.  之後有時間會做個大整理放更有價值的文章上來.


                                                  原文                                               


Some Buffett, Munger, and Berkshire...


Warren Buffett



    "Inside Story of Warren Buffett" [1988, Fortune]


  "Letter from Chairman Buffett" [1983, Fortune]



  What worries Warren [2003, Fortune]

  Buffett on U.S. Trade Deficit [2003, Fortune]


  Early Fears about Index Futures [1987, Fortune]



       Articles: 文章






Charlie Munger

  "Art of Stock Picking"      *推薦*

  Munger UCSB Speech     *推薦*


Benjamin Graham



Finance/Economics


"Castles in the Air- Gold and The Big Short" by Platinum Asset Management [2010]     *推薦*




Analysts / Hedge Fund Reports (分析師/投資人範本)


Jim Chanos

  Graham & Doddsville Interview with Chanos - Spring 2012    *推薦*

Bill Ackman of Pershing Square

  Herbalife Short Thesis     [the controversial case]
  MBIA Short Thesis

Fairholme

  MBIA Case Study


Mason Hawkins of Southeastern Asset Management

  Dell Board Letter      *推薦*


David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital

  Einhorn on Microsoft [2006]      *推薦*

  Apple Unlock Value

  Green Mountain Coffee Roaster (GMCR)







*Disclaimer: All of these presentations are available online. These documents shall not be viewed as an intent to solicitate or recommend any investment activities.


*** To Be Updated

10 則留言:

匿名 提到...

MBIA long-thesis from Fairholme Funds: http://www.fairholmefunds.com/sites/default/files/120827%20Case%20Study%20IV%20%20MBIA%20v7.0.pdf

Bruce did sell most of his stake after BofA settlement.

Lins Value 提到...

Thanks for sharing, again. I did not invest/short in MBIA because it's out of my scope.
On the other hand, I intend to post an article about WRLD. Wonder if you have checked the short thesis by Citron Research? I am not a short seller, but the thesis is too compelling that I am seriously considering putting up some capital to short WRLD.

匿名 提到...

No. I haven't... I rarely short either. hard to time it as you need to rely on firms like Citron, Muddywater or Kerrisdale capital to constantly exposing them as your catalysts. But they can be quite profitable though. would be glad to see the short thesis. PS: I did get screwed investing in CCME... on the long (wrong) side unfortunately.

匿名 提到...

I took a quick look at WRLD. It looks like an elaborate pawnshop. It seems the Netflix expert, Whitney Tilson was shorting it... I wouldn't short it. This is a highly profitable company like Herbal Life and has cash to repurchase its own stock every quarter ($200M trailing 4 Qtr or 18% of the current market cap). The only way short would win is to prove it fraudulent and get it shut down, which can be very long and painful process. It's likely to lengthen ur investment horizon and lower the IRR at the same time. I have not seen the short thesis by Citron Research. Just my quick opinion.

Lins Value 提到...

My apology for the late reply. It's been a busy Sunday for me with my familly.
I totally agree with you on the Herbal Life thesis, since the timing is difficult to predict and the ultimate return depends on the regulators activity (or inactivity). The main difference between WRLD and HLF is that the managements have been selling loads of stocks, and even in its 10-K it says that 80~90% (I can't remember the precise number) of the revenue comes from REFINANCING. This means that without those troubled borrowers constantly renewing their loans in order to repay their previous ones, WRLD will be in big trouble.
Also, the regulators have been very active trying to close down the loopholes...most of these info I got them in the articles and news letters. Haven't spent a great deal of time to dig in yet.
I may post a brief article with regard to WRLD in Chinese first in a week or two.

Here's the article: http://www.citronresearch.com/world-acceptance-corp-nasdaqwrld-their-business-model-is-a-borderline-legal-ponzi-scheme-whose-day-of-reckoning-has-finally-come/

I also have a couple of other articles with regard to WRLD. Most of these info I got it from other sources, so I shouldn't take credit for this. If you don't mind pls shoot me an email or add me on facebook. I will forward them to you ;)

匿名 提到...

hmm... trouble borrowers always need refinancing... that's how loan sharks and predatory lending work.. management selling is big-time red flags though. Sure. I'll add your FB page. I guess you could purchase tiny bit of LEAP puts on WRLD and keep adding... but it seems the longest maturity is only up to Jan '14... u could certainly short it bit by bit. It looks like a huge run-up within last 6 months.

Lins Value 提到...

Thanks a lot. I agree. I don't think I am going to short it since the value of the short position shrinks as companies like Herbalife or WRLD grows. Even if I do that will just be a very small portion of my portfolio, so I think I will pass. Einhorn's Greenlight likes to maintain a 50/50 long-short position to eliminate the systematic risk. Although hedges like this isn't really the conventional value approach, it does have its merits don't you think?

匿名 提到...

You might want to check out Li Lu's preface in the Chinese translated version of Poor Charlie's Almack. He got rid of shorting completely and turned his own fund's performance around.

http://tjdad.blogspot.tw/2010/05/blog-post.html

I thought about 50/50 long-short before. It's the original hedge fund concept... u can theoretically hedge away market risk.. or so u believe. However, managing shorts can create great agony... frauds tend to persist... just look at Bernie Madoff... "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Lins Value 提到...

Yes I have read Charlie's ALmnack, great book.
And actually I have never shorted a stock, despite some thesis out there were quite compelling and more importantly, predatory businesses like WRLD is really disgusting. And yes I wouldn't want to go through the pain when things and timing go against us.

Eric 提到...

你好,我也是位熱愛價值投資的專業投資者
想跟你有機會互相交流意見
不過在你的"完整簡介"中
我沒辦法寄送電子郵件給你
不知道能不能跟你請教你的email
(我的:erichu.fund@gmail.com)